We are not approaching the transport policy goals

A lot happened in the transportation sector during 2023, but the figures look roughly the same as last year, noted Transport analysis when presenting its follow-up on the transport policy goals at a webinar on Tuesday.

"Many things happened during 2023. Anders Brandén Klang, project manager for goal monitoring at Transport analysis, first talked about how the Swedish transport system was affected by several serious incidents such as train derailments, the landslide at Stenungssund, and the grounding of the Marco Polo in the Hanö Bay.

"Several of the incidents can be linked to extreme weather, something that will become more common as the climate changes," he said.

Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has had a major impact on transportation over the past year, affecting transport flows, fuel prices, and component availability for the automotive industry, among other things. Also significant was the decision to introduce the EU legislation Fit for 55, which includes maritime shipping in the EU ETS - the EU's emissions trading system, starting this year. Regarding maritime shipping, the decision on FuelEU Maritime was also significant as it requires shipping companies to gradually reduce the life cycle emissions from the fuels they use on their vessels. The new EU directives are expected by Transport analysis to have a positive effect on the Swedish transport system in the future.

So far, however, not much has changed. Just like in previous years, Transport analysis bases the condition of the transport system on 15 indicators. And the numbers look similar to last year. Regarding the state of transport research and innovation, it is written word for word as in last year's report: "Sweden is at the forefront of transport research and innovation, but the performances are mode-specific. Road transport, vehicle technology, and fuels dominate research, investments, and venture capital. The number of participants is growing in vocational training with a focus on vehicle technology and logistics, but has stagnated in other areas. We see signs of higher research performance in railways and shipping, but not in patent applications and investments in transport vehicle technology."

Last year, the Government also decided on reduced reduction obligations and lowered fuel taxes from January 1, 2024, which will lead to increased emissions. At the same time, there are also signs that the pace of electrification of the passenger car fleet has slowed down. According to Transport analysis, this reduces the likelihood of reaching the national interim goal (a 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport excluding aviation by 2030 compared to 2010).

This led to the closing question of the webinar: Can the goal still be achieved?

"Yes, if a higher share of biofuels is reintroduced into the system. This can be done in ways other than through a reduction obligation. Even with an emissions trading system that increases the prices of fossil fuels to such an extent that biofuels enter the market through their own competitiveness," said Anders Brandén Klang.